Brand new developments! Cycling Statistics (@statsoncycling) will be a regular guest in the ‘WielerOrakel podcast (WielerOrakel podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcast)’, a Dutch podcast in which cycling-fans Tom and Thomas will rejoice in the next big races on the calendar. The podcast will feature guest-appearances of Arjan Zoer (ZoerCyclingStat) and us (StatsOnCycling). This podcast is mandatory stuff if you care about your cycling-bets and -pools.
In de WielerOrakel Podcast verheugen wielergekken Tom en Thomas zich op de koers met wisselende gastoptredens van databrein Arjan Zoer (@ZoerCyclingStat) en statswonder Daniël (@StatsOnCycling).
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First episode on Scorito Classics-game
On February 22nd 2022 the first episode will launch with my view on the riders to select in the Scorito Classics Game for 2022. 17 classics in 2022 are part of the Scorito Classics game. Participants have to select 20 riders (limited budget) that score points by finishing top-20 in those 17 races. Every race 3 cyclists can be selected as leader, they can score more points.
Which cyclists should be in the teams of the participants if we let the stats talk? Let’s take a closer look at the performances of active pros in those 17 classics.
Races in the game:
Classics that are part of the game, taking place from February 26th until May 1st: Omloop het Nieuwsblad, Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne, Strade Bianche, Milano-Torino, Milano-SanRemo, Brugge-DePanne, E3 Classic, Gent-Wevelgem, Dwars door Vlaanderen, Tour of Flanders, Scheldeprijs, Amstel Gold Race, La Fleche Brabanconne, Paris-Roubaix, La Fleche Wallone, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Eschborn Frankfurt.
Performances by active pros
56 out of the 922 active cyclits (riders under contract of Pro or WorldTour team in 2022) have won one or more classics from the game in their career. 25 cyclists have won two or more and only 10 riders won more than 5 races.
Philippe Gilbert is the active cyclists with most career-wins in the 17 classics. His first victory was in Omloop Het Volk of 2006 and his most recent win in a classic was in Paris-Roubaix 2019. 2011 was Gilberts most succesful season, winning 5 of the 17 included classics. After Gilbert, Valverde is most succesful with 9 wins, 5 of which in Fleche Wallone and 4 in LBL. Kristoff and Sagan each have won 8 classics.
Considering the past 5 seasons, Alaphilippe has won most classics: 6. Mathieu van der Poel is on 5 victories and Van Aert and Van Avermaet have each won 4 of the spring-classics. Greg’s most recent victory was in Paris-Roubaix 2017 though. Kasper Asgreen has won 3 classics so far, but did so in the past two seasons.
Taking a somewhat broader look at top-10 results, the same names pop up. Greg van Avermaet finished 50 times top-10 in a classic during his career, 2 times more than Gilbert. Jasper Stuyven and Sonny Colbrelli are two cyclists who finished top-10 quite often, but started winning only recently. On the other side, guys like Degenkolb, Terpstra and Vanmarcke had some very good results between 2011 and 2019, but have fewer podium-finishes in the past couple of seasons.
In the past 5 years, the performance of Wout van Aert in the classics is remarkable. Wout finished 18 times top-10 and has 11 top-3 results, only Greg has more top-10 resutls since 2017 (21; mainly in 2017 and 2018). Benoot, Stybar, Trentin and Matthews are among the consistent riders with many good results, but few exceptional performances. Looking at performances since 2019, besides ‘The Big 3 (Ala, MVDP and WVA), Lampaert, Turgis and Sénéchal deserve a mention. All three have finished 12 times top-10 in the past 3 seasons. Moreover, they perform better every year and might do even better in the cobbled classics of 2022.
Top-results without a victory
Michael Matthews is the active pro with most top-10 results without a victory in classics. Bling finished top-10 22 times but never won. He is shortly followed by Trentin and Haussler. Another remarkable name on this list is Bauke Mollema, who finished 12 times top-10 (mainly in the three hill-classics) but never managed to finish top-3. Also some sprinters are in the list of cyclist with many top-resuls without a win, like Nizzolo (8).
Looking at the past 5 years, Trentin and Naesen have finished 15 times top-10 without winning. Will it be their turn in 2022? Degenkolb, Neasen and Vanmarcke have all three been close to winning since 2017, but ended 4 times top-3, without a victory.
Looking at the performances in the pre-season some more guys deserve a recommendation. Jakobsen is really strong in the sprints so far, and he aims to compete for the win in 4 or 5 sprinty-classics. One should not forget about him. Also Pedersen had a strong start and looked quite strong at the difficult uphill finishes in Etoile de Besseges. Alberto Bettiol had that one exceptional win in Flanders 2019, but seems ready for 2022 with many top-10 results in the season so far.
Good luck to everyone with picking the right cyclists for the Scorito game. Hope you enjoy the 2022 cycling season!
Daniël Herbers
If you have any remarks, leave a message or reach out through Twitter or Instagram. (@statsoncycling / statsoncycling@gmail.com)
Cycling Statistics / @StatsOnCycling 